Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict on Turkey’s Tourism, Investment, and Trade Exchange with Its Neighboring Countries

Abstract

This article systematically examines the multidimensional impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Turkey’s tourism, investment flows, and trade exchange with its neighboring countries—specifically Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Bulgaria, Greece, and the broader Caucasus and Middle Eastern regions. Employing a mixed-method approach combining time-series trade data (2020–2024), tourism statistics, and foreign direct investment (FDI) reports, the study reveals a paradoxical effect: while the conflict disrupted traditional trade corridors and deterred certain investments, it accelerated Turkey’s role as a logistical bridge, a sanctioned-economy conduit, and a safe-haven destination for Russian capital and tourists. In tourism, the collapse of Western travel to Russia redirected millions of Russian tourists to Turkey, offsetting declines from Ukraine. In investment, a surge in Russian FDI via “shell companies” and real estate purchases, coupled with Western corporate relocations to Istanbul, reshaped Turkey’s capital landscape. In trade, Turkey’s exports to Russia and its neighbors increased significantly in machinery, agricultural goods, and re-exported Western products, while energy import costs ballooned. The article concludes with strategic recommendations for Turkish policymakers and regional business leaders seeking to balance geopolitical risks with commercial opportunities.